World Cup 2026: Who has the best path to the final?

Day 17 of the World Cup, the group stage ended. Although many big decisions were made before Saturday's games, things were still unresolved. Lionel Messi showed his brilliance again, as he was rested by Argentina coach Lionel Scaloni as the team secured top spot in their group, but he participated and scored his sixth goal of the tournament in a 3-1 win over Jordan.

The other match in Group J ended in excitement, with Austria and Algeria qualifying together after a 3-3 draw, although that's not the whole story. A 2-2 draw was in sight, before Riyad Mahrez put Algeria ahead in the 93rd minute, which would have canceled out Austria's qualification and given Iran a chance again as one of the best teams in third place, but Austria was able to score an equalizer in the last moments.

England took some time to get going, but secured top spot in Group L with a 2-0 win over Panama, thanks to second-half goals from Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane. Croatia qualified in second place after a 2-1 win over Ghana, but the latter also qualified for the round of 32 as one of the best third-placed teams.

Colombia topped Group K after a thrilling 0-0 draw in Miami against Portugal, where Cristiano Ronaldo struggled again. Democratic Republic of Congo qualified after coming from behind to win 3-1 over Uzbekistan.

Match Day 17 results:
Group J: Algeria 3-3 Austria; Jordan 1-3 Argentina
Group K: DR Congo 3-1 Uzbekistan; Colombia 0-0 Portugal
Group L: Croatia 2-1 Ghana; Panama 0-2 England.

##Who has the best path to the World Cup final?
And so, the group stage was over: 72 matches, 215 goals, and only 12 countries eliminated, which feels like there was too much football to eliminate a third of the tournament's participants. But the distribution became clear, and we can now plot routes to the final for any team that interests us.

So, who has the "easiest" path to glory on July 19? The quick answer is: No one is on the left side of the lot. There all the strong European teams ended, except for England: France, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Germany, Croatia and Belgium. Add to that the host nations the United States and Canada, as well as Morocco, and we have a host of exciting matches.

If those top teams aren't facing a tough Round of 32 match, their next match probably will be. If all goes as expected, the Round of 16 matches will be France vs. Germany, Netherlands vs. Canada, Portugal vs. Spain and USA vs. Belgium. This will be hard for them, but great for us as viewers. However, there is a good chance that the Americans will be in the quarterfinals: they have to beat Bosnia and Herzegovina, and then they may face the Belgians, who are no longer the same.

On the other hand, things are not as difficult, as the best teams are from South and Central America: Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Mexico. It seems that the general level here is weaker. So, while England might have skipped Portugal and Spain to reach the quarter-finals had they been runners-up in their group, they will now face DR Congo before a potential showdown with Mexico in the Azteca—a test that, depending on the level of the teams, is better than the alternative. However, perhaps the 'best' path to the final belongs to Argentina, the defending champions. They will face Cape Verde, the rookie team to get past, then Australia or Egypt, then perhaps Colombia, before a possible clash with England or Brazil in the semi-finals. It all depends on the level of the teams. There will be surprises. Underdog teams will win. The World Cup always surprises us.

Can Lionel Messi break Just Fontaine's goals record?

And speaking of an easy run of games for Argentina, could it help break one of the oldest records in football? It seems that in this tournament, you can't even stop Messi from scoring even if you leave him out of the starting lineup. Messi was rested by Scaloni for the final group match against Jordan. Either to maintain his bid before the playoffs, or just to give the thousands in attendance in Dallas their money's worth, he entered the court in the final half-hour. After a free kick went over the crossbar, he scored his sixth goal of the tournament with a low shot, around the wall and past goalkeeper Yazeed Abu Laila. This, while not the most beautiful goal Messi has scored, sets him on the path to doing something extraordinary: something that has not been done in 68 years. Just Fontaine's record of 13 World Cup goals, which he scored for France in the 1958 edition, is one of those eternal records that you never expected to be broken. The level of quality of teams is so high these days, the tactics are so rigorous, and the defenses so organized, that this level of scoring cannot be replicated. Fontaine scored goals consistently throughout that tournament, but increased his tally with four goals in a crazy third-place play-off against West Germany. Only two other men have managed to reach double figures in a World Cup: Sandor Koksic of Hungary with 11 goals in 1954, and Gerd Müller of West Germany with 10 goals in 1970, but Messi is on his way to joining them. Who knows: Fontaine's number may be broken. He has five more potential appearances and needs eight goals to reach 14: ambitious, to say the least, but the six goals he has now would have earned him at least a share of the Golden Boot in the previous 12 World Cups. It will be tough to get past Fontaine, but... would you bet against him?

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